MUMBAI: India’s commercial capital finally appears to be winning the protracted battle against the viral infection, with the average rate of doubling in Covid-19 cases increasing to 23 days in most pockets of the sprawling metropolis barring a single ward in the northwestern suburbs.

From 11 days of ‘average doubling rate’ in infections as late as May 23, or two months since the beginning of the lockdown, cases in Mumbai are now taking 23 days to double, data issued by the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) showed. P-North ward (Malad) is the only exception, where the number of cases is still doubling in 11 days, compared with six days in late May.

ET had reported earlier that the BMC believes the Maximum City has reached its infection-incidence peak, and adherence to social distancing norms and adequate precautions should help contain the number of new infections. However, adherence to the prescribed safeguards is crucial for the city to become virus-free.

“If people practice adequate safeguards, like ensuring social distance and wearing masks in public, then by June-end we would be sitting pretty. Otherwise, we may have another round of infections,” a top civic official told ET.

To be sure, the time taken for cases to double hides the base effect of the initial number of cases.

According to BMC officials, infections in the city peaked around the latter half of May. Mumbai’s condition has gradually improved after May 23. On that day, cases doubled within 10 days or less in 14 out of the 24 administrative wards at BMC. In Ghatkopar, Malad, Goregaon and Bhandup, cases were doubling in seven days or less. However, by June 8, the situation has improved considerably. Now, cases are taking 19 days to double at Ghatkopar.

Goregaon in P-South ward is witnessing a doubling rate of 17 days from the earlier 7, while Bhandup is taking 14 days. In G-North, which includes Dadar, cases are taking about 40 days to double: This inner-city suburb has among the highest number of cases in the city, nearing 3,500.

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